Strange New World

We are now starting to see some things in the economy that we have never seen before: Last week, I mentioned some potentially widespread examples of wage declines in particular industries. I think in the [...]

By | July 16th, 2017|Categories: Positioning|

Rates Decision Point

Gundlach and Dalio were out last week saying that rates have more to climb.  I agree in the longer term (I think ten year yields are more likely to make new highs than new lows), [...]

By | July 9th, 2017|Categories: Economy|

Rates Blowout Potpurri

I haven’t been very active the past few weeks – mostly because I have been trying to make sense of how the markets could possibly be flattening when all things have been pointing to a [...]

By | July 2nd, 2017|Categories: Economy|

An Explanation for the Labor Force and Wages

One of the by-products of having so many economists (and central bankers) in ivory towers is that they operate under the implicit assumption that if it’s not measurable, it doesn’t exist.  The nice thing about [...]

By | June 25th, 2017|Categories: Economy|

Unstoppable Force vs Immovable Object

The next few weeks should be very interesting in fixed income.  On one side, we have the seemingly unstoppable force of the flattening yield curve.  On the other side, we have what looks like a [...]

By | June 18th, 2017|Categories: Economy|

Know Your Enemy

“Know Your Enemy” - Sun Tzu & Green Day On Friday, we got a 2bp flattening in EDH8-H0.  As mentioned in a previous CA, there is a tendency for the curve to flatten a few days [...]

By | June 11th, 2017|Categories: Economy|