Inverted Yield Curve

Some of the FOMC members have been saying they don’t want to invert the yield curve, but sections of the ED yield curve have already inverted.  For the past few weeks, EDH0-H1 spread through EDZ0-Z1 [...]

By | July 1st, 2018|Categories: Featured, Positioning|

Scenarios

Whenever I have a hard time with macro views because of news uncertainty, I like thinking about scenarios.  Most people think only about the current yield curve, but you can also look at the conditional [...]

By | June 24th, 2018|Categories: Economy|

Surprising Central Banks and the Curve

After a number of snoozer central bank meetings, we had several surprises from the Fed and ECB.  These surprises have caused a number of minor regime changes on how some local parts of the ED [...]

By | June 17th, 2018|Categories: FOMC|

Fed Meeting Thoughts

Next week’s Fed meeting could be important to gauge their thinking in the midst of various uncertainties – trade (tariffs) and the effect of the recent tax stimulus.  Here are some things I’ll be looking [...]

By | June 10th, 2018|Categories: FOMC|

Game Night and Wages

Every now and then, we’ll have Game Night with some good friends of ours.  One friend works at one of the largest companies in the US, and the other works in a small multinational firm.  [...]

By | June 3rd, 2018|Categories: Economy|

Fed Comprehension Fail

I was amazed that FFV8 sold off as much as it did, but I am equally amazed that it rallied 8bps last week off of the Fed minutes.  I had been telling clients for weeks [...]

By | May 27th, 2018|Categories: Positioning|