Algo Shenanigans

[WARNING: Idle Speculation Ahead] Last week, I mentioned what I suspected was potential spoofing in the ED markets.  Of course this was just a feeling.  I don’t have the tools to record and monitor the [...]

By | November 26th, 2017|Categories: Basics|

Curve Flattening is Not Signaling a Recession

I’ve been saying for weeks now why the curve was probably going to flatten.  I discussed how the other central bank policies could act like a bungee cord, holding the longer end US rates down.  [...]

By | November 19th, 2017|Categories: Positioning|

Current Events

It was a quiet data week, but we had a very interesting news week, that had some interesting implications for the curve.  It seemed for most of the year that everyone was expecting oil to [...]

By | November 12th, 2017|Categories: Economy|

Fed Pricing 171105

There seems to be two large flows going on right now in the front of the curve.  I had previously mentioned our EDZ8-Z9 friend, who appears to be on the wrong side of EDZ8-Z0 flattening. [...]

By | November 5th, 2017|Categories: FOMC|

The Big Data Week

I’m getting the feeling that if we don’t break the downtrend line next week, it could be at least another month (until the next PCE and Employment report) before we test it again.  We have [...]

By | October 29th, 2017|Categories: Economy|

Fundamentals vs Downtrend Line

Now that the ten year yield is back near the recent highs, I’m a little uncertain as to how far this goes.  If it wasn’t for the downtrend that everyone seems to be looking at, [...]

By | October 22nd, 2017|Categories: Economy|