Probability Distributions of EDZ8

[Below is a Trade Thought essay that discusses a real-world application of the options article I wrote for the CME]   This will probably be a multi-part series.  This week, I wanted to discuss the pricing of [...]

By | July 29th, 2018|Categories: Basics, Featured|

Tails and Options Pricing

In a headline dependent market, things can change in a hurry.  We saw some of this last week, as we had surprising progress in trade talks with the EU.  We could get a number of [...]

By | July 29th, 2018|Categories: Positioning|

Market Reactions

Last week, we had Trump causing waves with this Putin meeting, and ending the week talking about tariffs on ALL of our imports from China.  We had the following weekly reaction from the markets: S&P [...]

By | July 22nd, 2018|Categories: Economy|

My Tariff Central View

The markets just don’t seem to care about the trade tariffs.  Stock have been chopping around in a tight range, and the front end of the FF curve is pricing in roughly the same amount [...]

By | July 8th, 2018|Categories: Economy|

Inverted Yield Curve

Some of the FOMC members have been saying they don’t want to invert the yield curve, but sections of the ED yield curve have already inverted.  For the past few weeks, EDH0-H1 spread through EDZ0-Z1 [...]

By | July 1st, 2018|Categories: Featured, Positioning|


Whenever I have a hard time with macro views because of news uncertainty, I like thinking about scenarios.  Most people think only about the current yield curve, but you can also look at the conditional [...]

By | June 24th, 2018|Categories: Economy|