High Yields and Equities

I ran across this chart yesterday (a retweeet from 13D Research and Bloomberg), and I thought it was interesting because we had some unusual price action Friday.  Normally, when equities drop almost 1%, you would [...]

By | April 22nd, 2018|Categories: Economy|

Longer Term Fed Funds Are Back!

For many years post-recession, the Fed Funds curve was dead.  Then as whispers of Fed policy normalization came around, the Fed Funds within 6 months started to come alive.  Then the Fed Funds within one [...]

By | April 15th, 2018|Categories: Positioning|

Trade Tariffs Potpourri

The markets are difficult to trade directionally with the markets whipping around on trade tariff headlines.  We have no significant competitive advantage in trying to guess the outcome.  There are a lot of people out [...]

By | April 8th, 2018|Categories: Economy|

Q2 Preview

We could see extremely interesting price action this quarter.  There are a number of catalysts we had been anticipating in Q2.  Let’s look for opportunities in the next week or two in the following areas: [...]

By | April 1st, 2018|Categories: Economy|

The Fed’s Overshoot

One of my former colleagues at JPM was a rocket scientist – literally.  We once discussed how for some corrective system models, you can have a situation where you overshoot before eventually settling to the [...]

By | March 25th, 2018|Categories: FOMC|

Fed Meeting Thoughts

There are so many wacky things going on with Eurodollar futures, from libor blowing out to Kong buying EDZ8-Z9 in unprecedented sizes, that it’s hard to get a good handle on what is going on [...]

By | March 18th, 2018|Categories: FOMC|