• bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 1 year, 11 months ago

    So we rolled,

    H8 is now BAX1 and last we spoke what now is F1 was F2.
    BoC didn’t raise rates in December waiting for the fed to move forward, the fed remained steady with a hike that was 98% priced into the meeting.

    Since then we had an amazing jobs number, and today we read confidence across the headlines.

    Results of the Winter 2017–18 S…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 1 year, 12 months ago

    This week the flattening bias arrived but just in the back (H9 and beyond) while Z7/Z8 is now 60-61..

    The flattening bias is going to be strong, with lower inflation the past few weeks in Japan, the EU and now China. I think as the curve continues to flatten, a subset of the market could take the flattening as a sign of an impending recession.…

    [Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 2 years ago

    The Z7 bid yesterday and today isnt surprising. Remember that we sold off hard on the jobs number and CDOR only moved a 1.4bps(vs 5bps that Z7 moved).

    ————–
    How many points are you guys “pricing” inside CDOR at 1.434?

    on the front end, i like the H8 3mFly at 5.5-6 as short candidate.
    Z7/Z8 steepened 10bps since friday.

    on a no hike…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 2 years ago

    it is very interesting that we are flattening on selloffs, however i do wonder if its because of the long end hunt for yield. I totally agree with you that nothing trades on a vaccum jpy eur usd.

    the open interest is minimal in the back.
    Contract OI
    U9 22k
    Z9 9.5k
    H0 3.1k
    M0 2.6k
    U0…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 2 years ago

    I dont know if the BoC will stop hiking after 3 hikes. One thing to keep in mind as that H9 and beyond, the open interest is smaller so it isn’t hard for spreads to move, one guy with a few to do can definitely move things around.

    I think it is an interesting structure to pick your spots and roll, keeping in mind that the open interest in the…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 2 years ago

    Boy was that fun, hello vol.

    Friday was a very interesting day, 10bps moved down the curve. Giving the BoC an easy hike next week if they want it.
    At 6 we are still buying the front, going for cdor 1.41%(98.59) (that H8 buyer did at least 70k-90k contracts during last 2 weeks and pushed that front fly down.

    The front moved on the news ending…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 2 years ago

    It has been an interesting year, a lot of the movements seem to have been triggered by Wilkins instead of Poloz…or not.

    Here is a snapshot of some random days.

    BA1 BA2 BA3 BA4 BA5 BA6 BA7
    09/14/17 98.26 98.10 98.01 97.95 97.9 97.87 97.84…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Jobbing in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 3 months ago

    Hey, nice to you posting again.

    It is also important be aware of news/events in order to evaluate liquidity.

    Getting something on the book and having to puke it because liquidity is drying up can be costly.

    Legging into the trade is key as well, but you must have a plan b on what you can hit if its going against you. Sitting a on the bid on the…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic 2016 Trade Discussion in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 6 months ago

    This is a very good point.

    I have been adding consecutive meetings.
    I understand what you are saying regarding the HMUZ meetings given that they have a press conference.
    This would make my X-Z-F fly structure very biased.

    However, this is what the market is thinking, there is nothing that says that this will always be like this, whats the point…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic 2016 Trade Discussion in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 7 months ago

    I guess my post was not clear enough.

    June is 50-50 in my mind, I just like to stay away from front of the curve trades. I’ve had really bad experiences with front flies going insane.

    The FFX-Z-F fly on a meeting-weighted means that the the structure is neutralized in weights 10/7 right now.(not 1-2-1)

    x6 = 99.51
    z6= 99.48
    f7=99.44
    On a…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic 2016 Trade Discussion in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 7 months ago

    Let’s entertain the following opinion even if you dont agree with it.

    As of today it can be safely said that the market had been unprepared for a hawkish surprise from the fed, we will see how the june meeting looks in tomorrow’s minutes.

    Let’s assume that inflation is coming back and that “transitory” effects are starting to fade away. June…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Trade Idea Blackboard in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 7 months ago

    Hi bagua,

    Why would you consider the FIFO a disadvantage? This is actually very good if you are trading it full time, kind of like trading BA’s.

    I struggled a lot with eurodollars because of the prorata.

    Regarding the large Asian players.
    To distort the market in what sense? outrights or flies?

  • bambam replied to the topic Trade Idea Blackboard in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 7 months ago

    Absolutely, say for instance the Canadian rates.

    whites,red and greens trade… but you are kind of a cowboy trading greens to the point that having flies on green legs spike your margin requirements. The greens are mostly computerized like you say, its very hard to be passive and get filled on those, unless they are implied on a spread.

    Any…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Trade Idea Blackboard in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 7 months ago

    It seems to be that the only “sexy” curve out there is the aussi one.
    The swissy doesnt look bad either

    Anyone trading those markets, how is the flow these days??

  • bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 7 months ago

    No need ignore that, the rumors might actually be true…
    I graphed commercial paper, bax and corra and it seems to be that they do widen when things aren’t great(in the past)…
    I don’t know what that might mean in the current setting. But they are widening…
    Chart 1 is 2006-2010
    Chart 2 is…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 7 months ago

    No need ignore that, the rumors might actually be true…
    I graphed commercial paper, bax and corra and it seems to be that they do widen when things aren’t great(in the past)…
    I don’t know what that might mean in the current setting. But they are widening…
    Chart 1 is 2006-2010
    Chart 2 is 2010-2016

  • bambam replied to the topic Oh Canada (BAX) in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 7 months ago

    Hi,
    Are you still following BA’s?

    Im quite puzzled right now, the whole curve is drifting down, pricing hikes already? The economy has shown a little bit of a pick up, yet Poloz remains dovish, he even slashed down growth and exports in the last press conference. Inflation has been drifting upwards, yet still on the 2% target, and the conference…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic The STIR Playbook in the forum Main Forum 4 years, 1 month ago

    “The curve is so flat now that all parts of the curve could lead a selloff. Eventually, you should see the long end of the curve start to flatten. This is because hikes further out will be pulled in.

    * Unlike the previous cycle, this will not be a long string of hikes. This is because the Fed is not hiking based on economic strength or high…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic The STIR Playbook in the forum Main Forum 4 years, 1 month ago

    “The curve is so flat now that all parts of the curve could lead a selloff. Eventually, you should see the long end of the curve start to flatten. This is because hikes further out will be pulled in.

    * Unlike the previous cycle, this will not be a long string of hikes. This is because the Fed is not hiking based on economic strength or high…[Read more]

  • bambam replied to the topic The STIR Playbook in the forum Main Forum 4 years, 1 month ago

    Is there any adjustment to the ratios? or you always do 1 vs 1.?

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