• bagua replied to the topic Z TURN in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 4 months ago

    Yes I think the back is the place to be obviously reds have steepened but I suppose Im saying how far can they go..

    The trade I was talking about was z6/7 – 2* 7/8 obviously 7/8 has massively outperfromed and the thing collapsed.

    For know yes Im out the back but the volatility presents opportunities there for sure.

    Cheers

  • bagua replied to the topic Z TURN in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 4 months ago

    Well patience is a virtue in ED’s but this trade has taken a month and well and truly collapsed .

    This weeks moves and ranges in the reds are volatile to state the obvious Im expecting the trip back down across the 12 months to be just as rapid to 25 BP.

    how you structure stuff is anyones guess i suppose the later blues ie h20/21 have also…[Read more]

  • bagua replied to the topic Z TURN in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 6 months ago

    interestingly at this time last year the Z5/6/7 v 2* 6/7/8 was trading negative with those red hikes being priced so arguably the z/8/9 part of the curve is primed to outperform seeing as though that spread 6/7/8-2* 7/8/ 9has rallied all year from -15

  • bagua started the topic Z TURN in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 6 months ago

    In respect of the Dec turns even with this slight steepening of the curve in the lastweek off the back of the long end sell off there seems to be the constant theme of Z turn cheapness interestingly the z7 over the last few days has also been responsible for the highest daily turnover and OI.

    based on where we were last year and the not…[Read more]

  • bagua replied to the topic Trade Idea Blackboard in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 11 months ago

    FIFO is very attractive but its getting fifo yes you can have great que and he will come in and lift or hit the market and has the ability to hold it there for a session or two just enough for you to puke then see it head your way.
    When you have size on it can hurt but the flies its a guy who is doing large very large size ie 10,20 ,50K

  • bagua replied to the topic Trade Idea Blackboard in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 11 months ago

    After trading Aussie curve for 10 plus years I would have to say yes there are opportunities but the are extremely difficult to execute particularly in the bank bills.
    Being a FIFO market que is absolutely essential . The SFE market is proliferated with que holding algos which if you are patient you can avoid .
    Couple with that the fact there…[Read more]

  • bagua replied to the topic Trade Idea Blackboard in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 11 months ago

    One could argue missed the boat in M10 6 month !! another day

  • bagua replied to the topic Trade Idea Blackboard in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 11 months ago

    Thanks yes good reply many way to skin a cat I assume you are referring to the M17 area in the 6 months.

    Cheers

  • bagua replied to the topic Trade Idea Blackboard in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 11 months ago

    I suppose in context when the fed went in dec 15 the 6 month front white fly was trading at a considerably lower rate than we are now Is that a case of the market getting too far ahead of itself again in the whites seems to be a very large divergence.

  • bagua replied to the topic Trade Idea Blackboard in the forum Main Forum 3 years, 11 months ago

    With respect to arb type plays across the curve and your carry ideas say long in the 18 area of the curve do you then look at shorter term plays like you have alluded to before in selling flys that are fully priced like M16 or the whites.

    I used to tend to avoid the front but ineurodollars the SFE fifo market its the only spot where you can…[Read more]