Digest 170315

March 15th, 2017|Digest|

Announcements: I'm pleased to announce that the regime change article I wrote for Automated Trader magazine has been published.  If you want to read an excerpt, the link is here.  Subscribers to AT should be receiving the issue shortly. I've also started writing again for the CA web site.  Read my latest post titled "Widen Your Trading Horizons" where I discuss thinking about different types of trading commentary. Watch for new features in coming weeks. Quotations: Apparently, that 2.5% CPI that I thought was a “punch in the face” was a baseball bat to the head for the FOMC.   (CA, [...]

CA Digest 170308

March 8th, 2017|Digest|

QUOTATIONS: I think the tone of the markets the second week [week of March 6] will be negative. You know all the “fake news” outlets will give the Women’s Strike good coverage – in fact, it could last more than a day.  It’s not implausible Trump throws gas on the fire with some inappropriate tweets.  And I can’t see the political news out of Europe getting any better any time soon.   (CA, Feb 26, 2017) Watch for new features in coming weeks. Weekly Essay - Calendar Thoughts: I saw an interesting interview last week with Chris Cole (Artemis Capital).  He [...]

CA Digest 170301

March 1st, 2017|Digest|

QUOTATIONS: The rise in CPI was a punch in the face.  (CA, Feb 19, 2017)  This is probably one of the reasons the March meeting shot up over 50% recently. Watch for new features in coming weeks. Weekly Essay - Curve Regimes: I finished that article on regime change for a trade magazine, and it has been approved.  It should be published some time in the next few weeks (I’m guessing).  There was one part of it that I thought was particularly interesting that I wanted to highlight because it seemed very relevant to the current market.  The market positioning has been [...]

CA Digest 170222

February 22nd, 2017|Digest|

ANNOUNCEMENT: I am in the middle of reorganizing the web site, and wanted to see what the demand was for back issues (a la Jim Grant).  If you want to purchase the February 12th issue (from which most of this Digest is based), you can order it HERE.  If you are unsatisfied in any way, I will donate the amount in your name to a charity of your choice.  As always, I welcome your feedback. QUOTATIONS: The Super Bowl confirmed by suspicions... the Trump supporters still like him. (CA, Feb 8, 2017)  My informal survey at a neighborhood Super Bowl party showed that [...]

Digest 170214

February 14th, 2017|Digest|

ANNOUNCEMENT: Normally, I send the Digest out on Wednesdays, but this week's Forum post was on some of the things I do to keep on top of the markets.  One of the resources I mentioned was RealVision.com.  They have $100 off for Valentine's Day (net $264/year), which is today (in case you forgot).  They have a 7 day trial if you just want to take a look - it's what's known in trading as a free option.   QUOTATIONS: Apparently the markets are unsure of direction as well.  It seems like the largest driver of rates right now is the [...]

Digest 170208

February 8th, 2017|Digest|

QUOTATIONS: "I could see how the "fiscal" stimulus folks could have been disappointed by Trump's first business day after the inauguration.  Rather than focus on improving growth, Trump spent a lot of time on things that could restrict growth (renegotiating trade pacts)."  (Jan 25 email)  We still see very few signs of stimulus. "the FOMC is probably full of Democrats, so they may be more likely to think negatively of what is going in the US.  So now that bearish FOMC tail looks smaller."  (Jan 31 email) Watch for new features in coming weeks.   I am finalizing my regime [...]

Digest 170201

February 1st, 2017|Digest|

QUOTES: "Start getting used to taller candlesticks." (Jan 22) [On steepening] "Part of this is what I had been saying for a few weeks now – the bears had been concentrating on being short the front end (possibly with longs in the longer end), while the bulls concentrated on the longer end.  As often happens, we got the move that hurt the most people." (Jan 22) "AOTBE, if the FOMC is full of Democrats, aren't they likely to be appalled by what is going in the US?  The bearish FOMC tail looks smaller." (Twitter, Jan 31) Watch for some new [...]

Digest 170125

January 25th, 2017|Digest|

Weekly Essay (Jan 15, 2017) - The January Fixed Income Rally: For a few weeks now, I have mentioned the January fixed income rally that we have seen the past three years.  If you count this year, that would be four years in a row.  You can see from the chart on the right how strong this pattern has been.  We have averaged a surprisingly consistent 40bp drop in yield the previous three Januarys.  For comparison purposes, I adjusted the previous years’ rates on Jan 1 (and subsequent rates) to this year’s Jan 1 rate (2.45%). I generally don’t have [...]

Digest 170118

January 18th, 2017|Digest|

NEW CA WEB SITE FEATURES: New Digest Page - There is now an archive of past Digests. Updated Positions Page - I put a few trades from previous quarters, and will add some trades more regularly. Updated Subscription Page - I updated the performance numbers through the end of 2016. Watch for new features in coming weeks. Weekly Essay (Jan 8, 2017) - The Surge in Non-Quarterly FOMC Meetings: We had a noticeable shift about how the quarterly vs non-quarterly meetings are priced.  I mentioned in an email last week that there was a large increase in open interest in [...]

Digest 170111

January 11th, 2017|Digest|

This is the inaugural CA Digest.  There are currently four sections: Main Essay - on a topic I find interesting that week. Delayed Market Comments - a few bullets from a weekly Newsletter that can be between 4 and 10+ pages. Summary of Trade Sections - I can't discuss active trades, but I can mention some updates. Forum Update - a summary of major posts that week. Let me know how to make this Digest more useful to you. CA Global Expansion: I’ve wanted to look at non-USD STIR futures for some time now, but it never looked like another central bank was [...]