• Now that we have Data Week over with, the rest of the month should have less noise than average.  However we have the following considerations for the rest of the month:

    North Korea. As mentioned previously, […]

  • I was listening to Bill Gross on Friday and he mentioned that we will be hitting the 30 year downtrend line in ten year Treasuries between 2.4 and 2.45% (currently 2.37%).  Gundlach made fun of Gross’s li […]

  • From time to time, I’ll post an occasional trade.  You’ll need a reasonable cost structure to take advantage of this opportunity.

    On Friday I sent out the following trade:

    I saw EDZ7 98.625 call trade 1.5 […]

  • I mentioned in client emails that I prefer taking Fed hiking views in FFs, and I wanted to explain a little more fully.  One of the things I have been doing more work on this year is looking at opportunities on […]

  • For the rest of this month, I’ll reprint the Trade Thoughts section of the CA Newsletter.  There are seven parts to the Newsletter: (1) My take on the events of the previous week, (2) A summary of where I s […]

  • I know the markets have been ignoring the Fed’s dots for some time now.  But as I always say, as the meetings get nearer, the Fed dots get more accurate.  For example, the day before a meeting, if you were to do […]

  • Since the macro rates picture has been hard to decipher, I think this is a good time to look at the micro.  There are a lot of interesting things going on in the very short end of the curve right now:

    I. An […]

  • Earlier this month, I started sending daily email thoughts to newsletter subscribers on anything in the markets that I think is interesting. I may discuss news, economic data, the calendar, flows, trades that go through, updates on CA trades, updates on microvalue on the curve, etc – pretty much anything I find interesting that day that relates…[Read more]

  • Earlier this month, I started sending daily email thoughts to newsletter subscribers on anything in the markets that I think is interesting. I may discuss news, economic data, the calendar, flows, trades that go through, updates on CA trades, updates on microvalue on the curve, pretty much anything I find interesting that day that relates to STIR…[Read more]

  • Earlier this month, I started sending daily email thoughts to newsletter subscribers on anything in the markets that I think is interesting. I may discuss news, economic data, the calendar, flows, trades that go through, updates on CA trades, updates on microvalue on the curve, pretty much anything I find interesting that day that relates to STIR…[Read more]

  • Since some of you may be new to ED trading, I may occasionally do a “Trade Basics” segment. 

    There was an interesting trade that went through on Friday, and I thought I would discuss it.  Almost 25K EDU7- […]

  • One of the things about the “gradual and communicative” Fed is that they pretty much tell us most of the important things we need to know well in advance.  No one said anything about a hike (even the hawks) so t […]

  • Last week, Kaplan suggested that his long term neutral FF rate was closer to 2.5% than 3%.  I’m going to assume that his dot is going to be at 2.625% later this month.  This got me to thinking about the rel […]

  • A cute chart that has been going around is this idea that QE caused rates to INCREASE.  Therefore, tapering should cause rates to DECREASE.    As absurd as this sounded, I had to whip out the chart to take a lo […]

  • There’s a cute statistic going around that in the second half of years ending in 7, the equity markets have had poor returns: 1987 (Black Monday), 1997 (Asian Crisis), and the 2007 (Financial Crisis).  Whaddaya kn […]

  • euroflies replied to the topic General Market Chat in the forum Main Forum 1 month, 4 weeks ago

    I’ll chime in on the IMM seats as a longtime member who has always tracked the seat market closely. The main reason why seats continue to decline is that there are really no new independent speculators because anyone new coming into the industry starts at a proprietary trading firm and tends to stay there or move to another rather than go…[Read more]

  • Curve Advisor replied to the topic General Market Chat in the forum Main Forum 2 months ago

    QUESTION 3 – LIBOR TRANSITION) I stumbled across your website recently and found it very informative. I myself am a STIR trader mainly trading Euribor. What are your thoughts on the lack of volatility in STIRS relative to past years and what do you think will happen to eurodollar when regulators transition away from libor? Do you think it will…[Read more]

  • Curve Advisor replied to the topic General Market Chat in the forum Main Forum 2 months ago

    QUESTION 2 – DEBT CEILING) Regarding the explanation of oct nov spread- Debt ceiling is coming up. When the last debt ceiling drama played, fed fund fixing rose at one instance).

    I haven’t really looked at this historically, because there could have been some other extraneous factors at play back then. Also keep in mind that the Fed has c…[Read more]

  • Curve Advisor replied to the topic General Market Chat in the forum Main Forum 2 months ago

    While I was away on my long vacation, I got a few general questions from a few readers on recent market developments. I thought I would resurrect this ancient thread, rather than create a new one.

    QUESTION 1 – TAPERING) I have been following your work for some time now and have gained immensely from it. I wanted to ask about the reinvestment…[Read more]

  • Curve Advisor replied to the topic General Market Chat in the forum Main Forum 2 months ago

    While I was away on my long vacation, I got a few general questions from a few readers on recent market developments. I thought I would resurrect this ancient thread, rather than create a new one.

    Question 1 – TAPERING) I have been following your work for some time now and have gained immensely from it. I wanted to ask about the reinvestment…[Read more]

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