|When things don’t go as planned, I think it’s always good to take a step back and reflect. Was the March hike something that could have been expected? Maybe. You just needed to think CPI would have lit as large a fire as it did under the FOMC. I thought they would have needed some PCE corroboration. But I suppose PCE inflation was firm month over month, even though it was in-line. We learned a number of things from the events of the past week:
CLICK TO READ THE REST OF THE ESSAY FROM MARCH 5. One of the things I discuss is this chart from last year:
Next Week: I discuss and update to my Six Pillars of Long Rates post from three months ago.